EU Enlargement and Ukraine’s Membership: Challenges and Geopolitical Implications Amid Ongoing Conflict

The European Union’s enlargement policy is at a crossroads as Ukraine moves closer to membership candidacy amidst ongoing conflict with Russia. Ukraine and Moldova were granted EU candidate status in 2022 in direct response to Russia's invasion, with Georgia following in 2023. However, the EU faces complex governance issues that complicate further expansion.

The EU's current decision-making structure, which relies heavily on the veto power of existing member states, presents a significant hurdle to accommodating new members. French President Emmanuel Macron has voiced concerns that admitting additional countries without reforming the EU’s internal processes could weaken the union's functionality. This internal debate is particularly relevant as Western Balkan countries like Albania, Serbia, and Montenegro also vie for membership, alongside Ukraine and Moldova.

In seeking solutions, proposals have emerged to admit new members without granting them veto rights. Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama and Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić support this idea, seeing it as a way to integrate new countries while avoiding complications from additional veto players. Nevertheless, skepticism remains among EU officials who worry this could create a two-tier membership system, potentially undermining EU unity.

Meanwhile, the conflict in Ukraine continues to complicate the political landscape. Despite renewed peace talks scheduled in Geneva between Ukraine and Russia, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains cautious, having rejected any territorial concessions that lack stringent security guarantees. Russia's recent missile and drone attacks prior to negotiations underscore the fragility of peace efforts.

US envoy Steve Witkoff expressed hope for progress in negotiations, emphasizing ongoing dialogues, though overall expectations remain guarded given prolonged hostilities and Russia's territorial occupation, including Crimea.

The interplay between the EU’s enlargement strategy and Ukraine’s conflict with Russia highlights profound geopolitical challenges. While Ukraine’s candidacy marks a significant symbolic shift in the EU’s response to Russian aggression, the EU must reconcile its internal governance crises to effectively integrate new members and help stabilize the region.