Germany's Security Policy at a Crossroads Amid Munich Security Conference 2026

The 2026 Munich Security Conference opened with a keynote address by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, underscoring Germany’s evolving role in European and global security amidst rising geopolitical tensions. The conference gathers prominent leaders including French President Emmanuel Macron, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The presence of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is particularly noted after last year’s divisive speech by US Vice President J. D. Vance highlighted strains within the transatlantic alliance.

Germany’s security policy remains in a state of transformation in response to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and shifting global alliances. Historically cautious about full military independence due to past European fears of German militarism, Germany still depends heavily on NATO and EU partners for defense. This reliance has been complicated by tensions with the United States, especially during the Trump administration, which questioned NATO commitments.

Political debate continues around Germany’s strategic path, with the Green party advocating for decreased dependency through a new transatlantic approach, though this has not gained majority support in the Bundestag. Particularly noteworthy is Germany's choice to prohibit its own nuclear weapons following the Two-Plus-Four Treaty, relying instead on NATO’s nuclear deterrent. Discussions are ongoing about a potential European nuclear umbrella involving France and the UK, signaling a cautious approach to greater military sovereignty.

In line with Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s 2022 Zeitenwende speech, Germany has increased defense spending and is positioning itself for a stronger leadership role within European security frameworks. However, this trajectory depends heavily on rebuilding trust with European neighbors like France and Poland, who remain wary of Germany’s military intentions.

Meanwhile, the conference is accompanied by large demonstrations, notably by up to 100,000 Iranian exiles protesting the ongoing repression by the Iranian regime, highlighting the broader security concerns discussed at the conference.

This Munich conference thus reflects Germany’s delicate balance between deepening security commitments within NATO and the EU, and cautiously advancing towards greater defense autonomy in an uncertain geopolitical landscape.