Improved Market Outlook Bolsters German Companies in the US Post-2026 Midterms

Following the 2026 US midterm elections, German companies operating in the United States report increased planning certainty and a positive market outlook despite ongoing trade challenges. The election results have curtailed President Trump's political influence, with moderate Senators like Jon Ossoff winning decisively, which reduces fears of a leftward Democratic shift and contributes to market stability.

Reinhard Pfingsten, Chief Investment Officer of apoBank, highlighted that the market initially reacted with losses but recovered as conciliatory remarks from Trump eased concerns. The limited scope for new debt-financed fiscal programs and the prospect of political gridlock are seen as positive for bond markets and stocks, providing businesses with a more predictable environment. Investors are expected to refocus on economic fundamentals such as growth and corporate earnings.

According to the AHK World Business Outlook Autumn 2026 survey, 64% of German firms in the US now rate their business situation as good, up from a more cautious stance in spring. Furthermore, 59% anticipate better business conditions within the coming year, supported by a resilient US economy marked by strong labor markets, steady consumption, and solid corporate profits. Yet, 51% acknowledge economic policy frameworks pose risks, and trade barriers remain a concern for 47% of respondents.

Investment intentions are robust: 41% plan to increase investments in the US, 48% intend to hire more staff, while 29% are shifting investments to the US in response to trade tensions, and 27% are realigning supply chains closer to American partners. DIHK CEO Helena Melnikov urged Germany to enhance its own investment climate—citing high energy costs, bureaucracy, and approval delays—to maintain its global competitiveness.

Overall, the midterm outcomes have fostered a more constructive political and economic framework in the US, supporting German businesses in their strategic planning and growth outlooks amid persistent trade policy uncertainties.