Nordschwarzwald Economy Shows Signs of Recovery Amid Geopolitical Challenges

The economic landscape in the Nordschwarzwald region remains mixed as of November 2025, with local businesses facing ongoing challenges but expressing optimism for a better future. According to the latest survey by the Chamber of Industry and Commerce (IHK) Nordschwarzwald, 24% of around 300 companies report a good business situation, an increase from 18% the previous year. While the current business climate is slightly negative overall, 24% of businesses anticipate improvements in the next year, and 17% expect rising order intake, up from just 9% last year, indicating signs of recovery especially in manufacturing, which moved from a balance of -26% last year to +10.5% this year. However, the tourism sector continues to struggle, with good business situation ratings dropping to 23% from 50% previously.

Key risks remain significant. The survey highlights weak domestic demand (75.5%) and rising labor costs (63%) as main threats to the region's economic development. IHK President Claudia Gläser and Chief Executive Tanja Traub emphasize the pressing need for reforms to enhance competitiveness and address structural challenges. Investment expectations are muted, with only 12% of companies planning increased investments.

Compounding these regional challenges are broader geopolitical risks affecting businesses across sectors, notably the electronics industry. Markus Hoffmann, Chief Strategy Officer of Werap Group, speaking at the EMS & PCB Forum 2025, outlined the critical importance of incorporating geopolitical risk into corporate strategies. Hoffmann described a "geopolitical recession" characterized by tariffs, stalled projects, and increased uncertainties that disrupt supply chains and affect business planning. He urged companies to adopt early warning systems and strategic regional market approaches to mitigate risks associated with new global power blocs and protectionism policies from major economies like the US and China.

Hoffmann further stressed the need for enhanced cybersecurity and combating disinformation as integral parts of risk management in today's geopolitical climate. His insights suggest that despite positive economic signals in Nordschwarzwald, businesses must prepare for external uncertainties influencing the economic outlook.

In summary, while Nordschwarzwald companies are cautiously optimistic about a brighter spring, persistent domestic and international risks underline the importance of strategic adaptation and political engagement to sustain economic growth and resilience in the region.