Schwarz-Rot Coalition Faces Declining Popularity One Year In

One year after taking office on May 6, 2025, the Schwarz-Rot coalition government in Germany is experiencing a significant drop in popularity according to the latest INSA poll. The combined support for the coalition partners CDU/CSU and SPD has fallen by seven percentage points since the federal election.

The CDU/CSU remains stagnant at 24%, down from the 28.5% they secured in February 2025, while the SPD has declined from 16.4% to 14%. Meanwhile, opposition parties are gaining ground: the far-right AfD has surged to 28%, up from 20.8%, capitalizing on the government's struggles. The Left Party and the Greens have also improved their standings, rising to 11% and 13% respectively.

Smaller parties such as BSW and FDP linger at 3%, failing to meet the 5% Bundestag threshold. INSA chief Hermann Binkert highlighted that approximately 10% of voter support is currently going to parties unlikely to enter parliament, making a stable parliamentary majority possible only through coalitions involving the Union, SPD, and either the Greens or the Left.

This polling shift signals growing challenges for the current government coalition and underscores increasing fragmentation in Germany's political landscape.