SPD and Union Face Historic Polling Crisis Ahead of 2026 State Elections

As the 2026 state elections in Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and Berlin approach, Germany's two major political forces, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Union, are grappling with a sharp decline in voter support, signaling a significant crisis for both parties.

Recent INSA polls commissioned by BILD reveal that both the Union and SPD are polling at historic lows, marking the weakest position for Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his coalition in five years. INSA analysts describe this decline as potentially irreversible, highlighting widespread voter dissatisfaction that jeopardizes their standing across the key states.

Within the SPD, this polling slump is accompanied by internal unease and demands for change. Steffen Krach, Berlin's SPD leader and top candidate, publicly called for a substantial policy shift, criticizing the federal government's reform package unveiled in July. He noted that 80% of Germans view the reforms as misguided and unbalanced. Krach expressed particular concern over proposed cuts to housing benefits, which disproportionately impact vulnerable groups such as single parents and retirees struggling with rent costs. He characterized these cuts as "absolutely the wrong way."

Krach also addressed ongoing debates within the SPD leadership about possible replacements for senior figures Bärbel Bas and Lars Klingbeil. However, he emphasized that substantive policy reform should take precedence over internal personnel disputes, stating that regaining public trust hinges on content, not leadership jockeying.

The SPD is planning a special party congress this fall amid growing internal calls for Bas and Klingbeil to choose between ministerial roles and party leadership. Meanwhile, Krach is actively campaigning aggressively in the states facing elections, acknowledging the uphill battle as polls show the party struggling to maintain relevance.

With both traditional parties experiencing deep dissatisfaction from voters and internal divisions surfacing within the SPD, the upcoming state elections will be a critical test of their political viability. The historic lows for the Union and SPD underline the broader challenges facing Germany's political mainstream as they confront shifting public sentiment and electoral uncertainty.