US Tariff Hikes in 2026 Pose Significant Export Risks for Germany

US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose additional tariffs on Germany and other European Union countries, aggravating tensions in transatlantic trade relations. According to a report by Die Zeit, these tariff increases could sharply impact key German industries, particularly automobile manufacturing, machinery, and chemical products, sectors that form the backbone of Germany's export economy.

The proposed tariffs are set to increase by 10% starting February 1, 2026, followed by a further 15% increase from June 1, 2026. These new hikes would be in addition to the existing 15% tariffs negotiated in mid-2025. Experts warn that the cumulative effect could lead to significant declines in export volumes and further weaken Germany's industrial base.

Despite indications that these intensified tariffs could harm both the US and European economies, the Trump administration remains committed to its tariff strategy. The European Union has been urged to respond collectively by seeking alternative trade agreements to mitigate the adverse effects of these protectionist measures. The need for a unified EU approach highlights concerns over unpredictability in international trade policies, a factor amplified by the recent tariff threats.

In contrast, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy has offered a more measured forecast, calculating that potential US tariffs might have a relatively minor impact on the EU's GDP, estimating effects between 0.06% and 0.15%. However, the Institute underscores that the real challenge lies in the uncertainties generated by such policy moves rather than the immediate economic damage alone.

This development comes amid broader geopolitical frictions, including trade disputes linked to conflicts like those over Greenland, reinforcing the urgency for Europe to fortify its trade mechanisms.

With tariff increases imminent, scheduled for early and mid-2026, German policymakers and industry leaders face mounting pressure to adapt to a more challenging global trade environment and safeguard the vitality of their export-driven economy.