AfD Ties with Union as SPD Faces Sharp Decline in Latest Polls

Recent polling data from the INSA Sunday trend poll reveals a significant political shift in Germany, with the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) closing the gap on the traditional Union parties (CDU/CSU). According to BILD, the AfD has gained 1 percentage point, now tying with the CDU/CSU at 26%, while the SPD suffers severe losses, dropping to an all-time low approval rating of 14% since January 2026.

The Greens have maintained steady support at 12%, and the Left Party stands at 11%. Meanwhile, smaller parties such as the FDP and BSW are struggling, each polling at just 3%, falling below the 5% threshold required for parliamentary representation.

Current coalition options remain challenging. A parliamentary majority requires 45%, but the black-red coalition (CDU/CSU and SPD) only sums to 40%, and a red-red-green coalition totals 37%. With the CDU/CSU ruling out any coalition with the AfD, the most feasible path to a majority is a Kenya coalition comprising the CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens, collectively achieving 52%. INSA chief Hermann Binkert notes that both the Union parties and SPD have lost over 10% of their voters since the February 2025 Bundestag elections.

These figures underscore a destabilizing political landscape for traditional parties amid growing support for the AfD, which continues to capitalize on voter dissatisfaction. The SPD’s ongoing crisis is further pronounced following major electoral defeats in Baden-Württemberg and Rheinland-Pfalz, exacerbating the party’s declining popularity.

As Germany approaches future electoral challenges, the evolving voter dynamics signal a complex environment for coalition-building and governance, reflecting broader shifts in public sentiment and party strength.