CDU Faces Increasing Pressure from AfD Ahead of 2026 Elections

As Germany approaches the crucial 2026 state elections, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is grappling with rising electoral challenges, notably from the Alternative for Germany (AfD). Recent polls have positioned the AfD ahead of the CDU in several regions, including Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, where the AfD is projected to become the strongest party. Political scientist Wolfgang Schroeder warns that missteps by the CDU risk benefiting the AfD, emphasizing that democratic parties should avoid adopting AfD rhetoric and instead focus on economic and social issues to differentiate themselves.

In Saarland, CDU leader Stephan Toscani is preparing for the 2027 state elections with ambitions to become Minister-President. Despite the CDU's current opposition status following the 2022 defeat, Toscani expresses confidence in the party’s resurgence, citing recent electoral successes. He highlights concerns over the AfD's growing support, especially in areas traditionally held by the SPD, and stresses the importance of addressing key issues like economic growth and migration. December 2025 polls indicate the CDU at 25%, trailing the SPD at 27% and the AfD at a notable 23%.

Schroeder also notes that while an AfD minister-president remains unlikely due to opposition from democratic parties, the possibility complicates efforts to ban the party, as unanimous Bundesrat approval would be required, potentially obstructed by an AfD-led government. As the CDU navigates these challenges, the party’s strategy in the upcoming elections will be pivotal in shaping Germany’s political landscape.