German Oil Companies Projected to Earn €4.9 Billion Excess Profits in 2026 Amid Rising Fuel Prices

New analysis from Transport & Environment (T&E) forecasts that oil refineries and gas stations in Germany could realize staggering excess profits amounting to €4.9 billion in 2026 if current market conditions prevail. Since the onset of the Iran conflict in February 2023, these operators have already amassed around €1 billion in extra profits.

The substantial windfall stems largely from soaring fuel prices, with diesel costs rising by 52 cents and gasoline by 33 cents per liter since the conflict began. For the average driver, this translates to an additional €28.60 to fill a typical 55-liter diesel tank compared to pre-conflict prices.

T&E sharply criticizes the German government for its inaction, especially regarding its policy of offering tax breaks to oil companies known as the “Tankrabatt.” Instead, the organization demands the introduction of an overprofit tax on oil companies to curb their excessive gains and advocates for stronger measures to promote electromobility and reduce fossil fuel dependency. T&E also proposes implementing Social Leasing programs aimed at making electric vehicles more affordable for low- and middle-income earners and calls for firm commitments to stricter CO2 fleet standards to cut transport sector emissions.

Despite the European Union imposing a 33 percent excess profit tax on fossil fuels in 2022, T&E views this as insufficient and urges Germany to champion an EU-wide overprofit tax.

These findings come as Germany grapples with volatile energy markets intensified by geopolitical tensions, underscoring the urgent need for policy shifts to protect consumers and accelerate the energy transition. According to T&E, without decisive government intervention, oil companies will continue to profit massively at the public’s expense in 2026 and beyond.