Germany Faces Accelerated Aging and Population Decline, Challenging Pension and Care Systems

Germany's demographic landscape is shifting more rapidly than anticipated, with new projections indicating significant challenges ahead. By 2034, about one in four Germans will be aged 67 or older, up from 20% currently, according to data from the Statistical Federal Office and reported by taz and Deutschlandfunk. This trend is driven by a continued decline in birth rates, which fell to 1.35 children per woman in 2024, down from 1.6 between 2016 and 2021, and a marked decrease in net immigration—from a peak influx of over 1.5 million Ukrainian refugees in 2022 to a forecasted 430,000 immigrants in 2024.

The number of retirees is expected to grow by between 3.8 and 4.5 million by 2038, pushing the retirement-age population to over 20.5 million. The aging population pressurizes the pension system amid a shrinking workforce, projected to decline from 51.2 million at present to under 38 million by 2070. This shift will result in a troubling old-age dependency ratio, with Germany potentially facing 61 retirees per 100 working-age individuals by 2070. These demographic factors pose substantial challenges for social security and economic sustainability.

Regional disparities exacerbate the demographic issues. Eastern German states are poised to experience stark population declines of up to 30% by 2070 and are currently older on average than Western states. In contrast, Western states may maintain population levels, and city-states like Berlin, Hamburg, and Bremen are expected to grow, largely due to immigration. The older population, especially those aged 80 and over, is projected to surge from 6.1 million in 2024 to nearly 9.8 million by 2050, significantly escalating the demand for care services.

Given these developments, pension reform discussions have intensified, with government commissions exploring possible modifications to adapt to the emerging demographic realities. The overall population is expected to shrink to around 74.7 million by 2070 from approximately 83.5 million today, underscoring the urgent need for policy interventions to address the socio-economic implications of Germany’s aging and declining population.