Germany Faces Significant Population Decline and Aging by 2070, Challenging Social Systems

Germany is expected to undergo profound demographic changes by 2070, marked by a shrinking population and a rapidly aging society. According to recent projections from the Statistical Federal Office, the population is forecasted to decrease from approximately 83.5 million in mid-2025 to about 74.7 million by 2070 under moderate assumptions. In unfavorable scenarios, the decline could be even steeper, dropping to as low as 63.9 million.

One of the most striking shifts is the increase in the elderly population. Within the next decade, one in four Germans will be 67 or older, up from one in five today. The baby boomer generation's retirement contributes heavily to this demographic shift, followed by substantially smaller birth cohorts. By 2038, the number of retirees is expected to have risen by at least 3.8 million, surpassing 20.5 million and increasing their share of the total population to between 25% and 27%.

This aging trend is intensified by rising life expectancy and declining birth rates. Birth rates have dropped from 1.6 children per woman between 2016 and 2021 to approximately 1.35 in 2024, attributed to economic uncertainties, inflation, housing shortages, and political instability. The birth deficit—births fewer than deaths—was over 300,000 in 2022 and is projected to grow beyond 600,000 annually by the mid-2050s.

The working-age population (ages 20 to 66) faces a significant decrease, shrinking from 51.2 million today to between 45.3 million and 37.1 million by 2070 depending on immigration levels. This decline pressures social systems, especially pension financing, with the ratio of retirees to workers worsening. Currently, there are 33 retirees per 100 workers; by 2070, this could rise to 61 retirees per 100 workers in a worst-case scenario, meaning fewer than two workers per pensioner.

Moreover, the population aged 80 and above is projected to increase dramatically—from 6.1 million in 2024 to as many as 9.8 million by 2050—significantly escalating the demand for elderly care services, as half of this age group already requires care.

Regional disparities exist as well. Eastern German states are expected to see population reductions of 14% to 30%, while western regions may remain relatively stable. Urban centers like Berlin, Hamburg, and Bremen are projected to grow due to sustained immigration.

Karsten Lummer, head of the population department at the Statistical Federal Office, emphasized the gravity of these trends, noting the severe implications for social policy and pension systems: “We will face considerably higher old-age dependency ratios; the shrinking workforce combined with rising retirees challenges the sustainability of our social systems.” The office further highlighted that even high immigration levels may not fully offset population decline.

In summary, Germany is confronting a demographic future characterized by fewer people, many older, and a shrinking workforce. These trends compel policymakers to consider urgent reforms in social security, healthcare, urban planning, and immigration policy to mitigate the profound societal impacts projected by 2070.