Germany’s Population Declines in 2025 Amid Birth Deficit and Reduced Immigration

Germany's population, which stood at approximately 83.5 million at the end of 2025, declined for the first time since 2010 due to a significant birth deficit and a notable drop in net immigration. Estimates from the Federal Statistical Office and other sources indicate a birth deficit of between 340,000 and 360,000 for 2025, with around 640,000 to 660,000 births compared to over one million deaths. This marks a continuation of a long-standing demographic trend since German reunification in 1990, where deaths have exceeded births every year.

Unlike previous years where immigration largely compensated for the natural population decline, net immigration in 2025 is projected to be between 220,000 and 260,000, a reduction of at least 40% from 2024’s figures. This lower immigration level resembles the numbers seen during the pandemic year 2020. As a result, Germany experienced a population decrease of about 100,000 people in 2025, reversing the growth trend of the early 2010s.

The demographic shift poses significant socioeconomic challenges. Experts caution that Germany's aging population will increasingly pressure social welfare systems, with forecasts suggesting that by 2033, one in four Germans will be at least 67 years old. Furthermore, the shrinking workforce and declining birth rate exacerbate labor shortages, especially in essential fields as many skilled workers approach retirement. Regions in Eastern Germany and some western federal states like North Rhine-Westphalia, Saarland, and Rhineland-Palatinate are anticipated to face pronounced effects on infrastructure and social services.

Local governments are now confronted with the task of adapting infrastructure planning and resource allocation to these demographic realities. Without changes, the demographic decline may intensify challenges in maintaining a balanced labor market and sustaining social systems.