Germany's Population Declines in 2025 Despite Immigration

Germany's population decreased for the first time since 2020, reaching approximately 83.5 million at the end of 2025, according to preliminary estimates from the Statistical Federal Office in Wiesbaden. This represents a decline of about 100,000 people compared to the previous year, reversing the growth trend seen from 2011 to 2024, except for the COVID-19 pandemic year 2020.

The decline is driven by a continued birth deficit and a significant drop in net immigration. In 2025, the number of births was estimated between 640,000 and 660,000, down from 677,117 in 2024, while deaths exceeded one million, continuing 26 years of births being outnumbered by deaths since reunification. This resulted in a birth deficit of approximately 340,000 to 360,000 individuals.

Historically, immigration has balanced out this deficit, but for 2025, net immigration was estimated between 220,000 and 260,000, a sharp decline of at least 40% from the previous year's 430,183. The reduced inflow of migrants could not fully offset the population loss due to the birth deficit. The estimates are based on monthly data up to October 2025, with projected figures for November and December.

This demographic development marks a significant shift after years of population growth despite ongoing challenges with lower births. It echoes previous population decreases recorded between 2003 and 2010, and again in 2020 during the pandemic. The decline highlights concerns for Germany's demographic future amid changing migration patterns and a persistent natural decrease in population size.

The Statistical Federal Office comments that although immigration has mitigated population loss in recent decades, the recent sharp drop in immigration numbers combined with the sustained birth deficit has led to an overall population decline. This new trend underscores the importance of future demographic policies and migration strategies to address Germany's aging and shrinking population.