Macron Overtakes Merz in European Ukraine Policy amid CDU Campaign Shakeup

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s leadership in European Ukraine policy faces significant challenges as French President Emmanuel Macron appears poised to reclaim influence. Macron plans to announce imminent talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has shown willingness for dialogue, a move that caught Merz and Berlin off guard. Unlike his predecessor Olaf Scholz, who engaged Putin four times, Merz has not contacted Putin since taking office, focusing instead on strengthening Ukraine through U.S. discussions aimed at securing negotiations involving security guarantees and territorial concessions. However, Macron’s initiative has raised questions about European unity, especially following a recent Ukraine summit in Berlin where Merz and Macron appeared misaligned.

Merz’s push for using frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine was sidelined when the EU approved a €90 billion loan package for Ukraine, marking a victory for Macron and portraying Merz as losing ground in European leadership. Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever’s opposition to Merz’s proposals further complicates the policy landscape.

Simultaneously, internal strife affects Merz's CDU party, with campaign manager Christine Carboni resigning after the party's weak 28.6% showing in the March Bundestag election. Criticized for campaign mismanagement and team leadership, Carboni will transition to managing director of the CDU’s Economic Council. The CDU acknowledged her resignation as voluntary, noting her past contributions but highlighting a need for change following election setbacks.

These developments underline increasing tension within German and European leadership over Ukraine policy and CDU strategic direction ahead of key political challenges.