Mixed Impact of Recent Coaching Changes in German Football Revealed
A look at recent coaching changes in German football reveals a complex picture about their actual impact on team performance and future prospects.
- • Several coaches secured their positions with recent wins, while others were dismissed after defeats.
- • A University of Münster study found no significant performance boost from coaching changes.
- • The University of Zurich found improvements if coaching changes target teams with low Expected-Goals ratings.
- • Miroslav Klose's Nürnberg has a high xGoals rating but poor league performance, complicating dismissal decisions.
Key details
Recent coaching changes in German football have produced varied outcomes across Bundesliga and lower leagues. Several coaches, including Sandro Wagner of Augsburg, Miroslav Klose of 1. FC Nürnberg, and Sabrina Wittmann of Ingolstadt, managed to secure their positions through victorious matches last weekend. Yet these wins have also led to dismissals, such as the firing of Fortuna Düsseldorf's Daniel Thioune following Klose’s victory, contributing to a total of eight coaching dismissals in the top three German leagues this season. In Bavaria, Patrick Glöckner was notably the only coach dismissed so far at TSV 1860 München.
The effectiveness of coaching changes remains controversial. A 2011 University of Münster study analyzing 154 coaching dismissals over several decades concluded that changing coaches does not significantly improve team performance. Cologne’s Professor Daniel Memmert reinforced this by noting no notable increase in points per game after such dismissals.
Conversely, a more recent 2021 University of Zurich study suggests coaching changes can be beneficial if based on Expected-Goals (xGoals) metrics—a measure of scoring opportunity quality. Teams dismissing coaches with low xGoals ratings improved performance by 0.23 points per game, a 120% boost. However, dismissals of coaches with high xGoals ratings showed no performance gains. Miroslav Klose’s team currently has a high xGoals rating but underperforms in league standings, implying his dismissal would not accord with Zurich’s findings. Memmert, however, warns about overreliance on xGoals data given its limitations and extraneous influences on scoring.
Younger coaches continue to emerge amid these shifts, such as Markus Hauptkorn taking charge of TSV Bleidenstadt’s men's team for the first time. This highlights ongoing strategic realignments during seasons despite acknowledged challenges of midseason coaching transitions. Overall, coaching changes remain a widely used tool in German football, though their true impact on results is nuanced and context-dependent.