New Study Warns Plastic Lifecycle Could Cost Millions of Healthy Life Years by 2040

A recent comprehensive study published in The Lancet Planetary Health highlights the growing health risks posed by the global lifecycle of plastics — from production and transport to usage and disposal. Researchers estimate that by 2040, plastic-related pollution and emissions could lead to a loss of around 4.5 million healthy life years worldwide, equating to roughly five hours lost per person globally.

The study, which examined six different future scenarios of plastic use, found that the production phase is the main contributor to health damages, releasing greenhouse gases, carcinogenic chemicals, and fine particulate matter. These pollutants significantly impact human health, measured through Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), accounting for both premature death and illness. Even in optimistic scenarios involving reduced plastic production and better recycling, the loss of healthy life years is projected to increase from 2.1 million in 2016 to 2.6 million by 2040.

Plastic’s lifecycle accounts for about 4.5% of human-induced greenhouse gas emissions, exceeding the aviation sector's share of around 2%. Despite the substantial health burden, it remains less severe than that caused by general air pollution, which can result in over 100 million lost healthy life years annually.

Experts like Walter Leal from Hamburg University of Applied Sciences, who were not involved in the study, acknowledge the study’s significance, stressing that while plastic health risks are significant, they are still lower than those from major threats like malaria or air pollution. However, he warns the study lacks a full cost-benefit perspective, as plastics also play essential roles in modern healthcare by enabling sterile medical supplies (e.g., syringes, implants) and protecting food and water from contamination.

Lead researcher Megan Deeney emphasized the urgent need for coordinated global policies to reduce plastic-related health hazards. The study also calls for greater transparency from the plastic industry and more data on microplastic and chemical exposure to improve health impact assessments.

As plastic consumption could nearly triple by 2060 according to OECD projections, these findings highlight an urgent public health and environmental challenge requiring systemic change worldwide.