Poland's Waning Role in European Ukraine Policy amid Public Skepticism and US Shift

Poland's influence in shaping Ukraine policy within Europe is notably diminishing, as recent developments highlight a shift away from Warsaw's prominence. At a Berlin conference gathering representatives from seven EU countries plus Norway and the UK, Polish Premier Donald Tusk played a subdued role, largely overshadowed by the E3 nations—Germany, France, and the UK. The conference's final document raised questions about whether it facilitates negotiations or obstructs peace efforts in Ukraine, underscoring Poland's reduced sway.

Historically closely aligned with the United States, Poland's defense strategy is heavily influenced by arms purchases from American manufacturers and dependence on US liquefied natural gas. Yet, this alignment has not translated into significant influence, as the US's new security priorities apparently do not center on Poland, according to geostrategist Jacek Bartosiak. Domestically, Polish public opinion is increasingly skeptical about military involvement in Ukraine, with all political parties opposing troop deployments, contributing further to Warsaw's marginalization.

Despite Poland pledging 100 million euros for arms support to Ukraine, its role as a key partner is questioned. Tusk himself expressed doubts about the feasibility of proposals like territorial concessions or Western troop deployments in Ukraine that were discussed in Berlin, signaling that Poland could regain political relevance only by adopting more pragmatic and realistic policies. These developments reflect a broader trend of Poland being less influential in European and international discussions on Ukraine as 2025 draws to a close.