Germany Anticipates Influx of Iranian Refugees Amid Middle East Conflict

A recent study by the Rockwool Foundation reveals that Germany may become the primary destination for Iranian refugees fleeing escalating conflict involving Iran and Israel. According to a 2024 Gallup survey cited in the study, 28% of Iranians who expressed a desire to emigrate identified Germany as their preferred destination, surpassing Canada (13%), Turkey (10%), the UK (6%), and France (6%). The study highlights that existing Iranian diaspora networks in Germany reduce migration costs and risks, making it a likely refuge during early crisis phases.

Christian Dustmann, director of RF Berlin, emphasized how these established connections influence migration patterns, while Tommaso Frattini, deputy director at CReAM, noted that future refugee movements often follow existing community distributions. However, Dustmann cautioned that practical challenges may delay or limit migration despite declared intentions, especially toward more distant countries like Canada or the US.

The background to this possible migration surge is the intensification of military engagements between Iran and Israel. On March 13, 2026, reports confirmed that Iran launched a rocket attack on Israel, contributing to heightened tensions. Subsequent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes caused significant casualties among Iranian leadership, escalating concerns of further displacement.

In Germany, politicians and police authorities have voiced alarm about the potential of a mass exodus from the region, urging preparedness for increased refugee arrivals and coordinated security responses. These developments place Germany at the center of humanitarian and political considerations amid the Middle East crisis.