Germany Faces Electricity Supply Constraints This Winter Amid Renewable Shortfalls

As Germany approaches the winter of 2024/25, significant concerns have emerged regarding potential electricity shortages. This risk is largely attributed to anticipated 'Dunkelflauten'—periods characterized by low wind and solar energy production—that typically occur multiple times during the winter months. Energy economist Prof. Manuel Frondel from the RWI Leibniz Institute has warned of a notable electricity supply deficit beginning this October, which will force Germany to rely heavily on electricity imports to meet demand.

In 2024, Germany shifted to being a net importer of electricity, with imports doubling to 11.7 terawatt-hours (TWh), predominantly sourced from France, which benefits from a robust nuclear energy infrastructure. While Germany maintains sufficient domestic generation capacity to satisfy demand, market factors and relatively lower international energy prices are driving this import dependence. The Bundesnetzagentur has emphasized the urgency of installing between 12.5 to 25.6 gigawatts (GW) of new flexible power plants by 2035 to safeguard against supply shortfalls during such low-renewable production events.

Economic Minister Katherina Reiche has set a target to build 20 GW of gas-fired power plants by 2030 as a critical part of Germany's energy security strategy; however, these plans may be delayed due to pending approvals from the European Commission. Concurrently, discussions about maintaining coal power plants as backup options have resurfaced, given their potential role in stabilizing the grid until new capacities come online.

Germany's energy transition continues to reflect progress, with increasing contributions from wind and solar energy offsetting a decrease in coal and gas use, yet this winter represents a challenging test of the system's resilience. The predicted Dunkelflaute episodes, coupled with delays in new power plant construction and shifting energy market conditions, underscore the complexities facing Germany's electricity supply this season.